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publication name Using system dynamics, neural nets, and eigenvalues to analyse supply chain behaviour - A case study. International Journal of Production Research, (46) 1: 51 – 71
Authors Rabelo, L., Helal, M., Lertpattarapong, C., Moraga, R., Sarmiento, A.
year 2008
keywords Supply chain modelling; System dynamics; Neural nets; Eigenvalue analysis
journal International Journal of Production Research
volume 46
issue 1
pages 51 – 71
publisher Taylor and Francis
Local/International International
Paper Link Not Available
Full paper download
Supplementary materials Not Available
Abstract

This paper presents a new methodology to predict behavioural changes in manufacturing supply chains due to endogenous and/or exogenous influences in the short and long term horizons. Additionally, the methodology permits the identification of the causes that may induce a negative behaviour when predicted. Initially, a dynamic model of the supply chain is developed using system dynamics simulation. Using this model, a neural network is trained to make online predictions of behavioural changes at a very early decision making stage so that an enterprise would have enough time to respond and counteract any unwanted situations. Eigenvalue analysis is used to investigate any undesired foreseen behaviour, and principles of stability and controllability are used to study several decision configurations that eliminate or mitigate such behaviour. A case study of an actual electronics manufacturing company demonstrates how to apply this methodology and its real benefits for enterprises.

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