| publication name | An Econometric Model for Egyptian Onion Exports |
|---|---|
| Authors | Asmaa Mohamed El-Tokhy Bahloul1 and Mohamed Osman Abdel Fatah2 |
| year | 2019 |
| keywords | Simultaneous Model, Two- Stage Least Squares, Theil U Test, Prediction and Mechanism of Advancement. |
| journal | Middle East Journal of Agriculture Research |
| volume | 8 |
| issue | 4 |
| pages | Not Available |
| publisher | Not Available |
| Local/International | International |
| Paper Link | Not Available |
| Full paper | download |
| Supplementary materials | Not Available |
Abstract
The selection of the Egyptian onion crop due to that the most economic studies indicated that the onion crop is considered one of the most important vegetable crops, which occupies a high position in the Egyptian agricultural export earnings. However, the statistics indicated that the ratio of exports to production fluctuates and decreases. The results of the current model show that the most critical factors affecting the average of Egyptian per capita consumption of onion according to the simultaneous model is the average of per capita share of domestic production of onion, and the average of price per kg of Egyptian consumers of onion. The estimation showed that the most important factors affecting the average of per capita import in the main import markets of Egyptian onion exports (according to the model) are both the average of per capita Egyptian domestic production, China's average export price (a direct relationship), while the average export price of Egyptian onion (inverse relationship). By forecasting total household consumption, it will reach about 2537 thousand tons during 2020, and reach about 2961 thousand tons in 2025, by increasing about 16.7% of its value in 2020 using the simultaneous model. The most important factors affecting the local production of Egyptian onion (according to the model) are the average of per capita UAE imports of the previous year, the average of Egyptian farm price of onion in dollars in the previous year, and the average of per capita consumption of Egyptian onion in the previous year. The total domestic production is expected to reach about 2783 thousand tons during 2020 and reach about 3620 thousand tons in 2025, representing an increase of 30.1% of its value in 2020 using the simultaneous model.