A Large scale dam named as Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is currently under
construction on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia. The final report of the International Panel of Experts
(IPoE) on the GERD project which was submitted to the governments of Ethiopia, Sudan and
Egypt, reported that the Aswan High Dam (AHD) will reach the minimum operational level during 4
consecutive years. Consequently, this project could significantly affect the water supply to Egypt, in
case if the first impounding of the GERD occurs during dry years. The present paper assesses the
potential impact of the shortage of Egypt water resources that will reduce the releases from AHD
due to the construction of the GERD on the Nile water in Egypt. Data was assembled and
analyzed. SOBEK model was selected to be applied to the designed scenarios. The water levels so
as discharges along the Nile River in Upper Egypt were produced under different water releases.
Results were obtained and analyzed. The analyzed results indicated that the maximum allowable
reduction in Egypt water share should not be more than 5 - 15%. So, the win–win strategy can
defuse tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the GERD. Furthermore, Ethiopia has to agree
with Egypt and Sudan on the capacity of the GERD reservoir, impounding rules of the GERD
reservoir and operating rules. The results of this study most probably assist decision makers to
identify possible measures to overcome water shortage problem.